SNIP
Is John Bolton Going Down?
An amazing afternoon at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Something amazing happened at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this
afternoon. In nearly 30 years of watching Congress, off and on, I can't
remember anything quite like it.
Bolton, the most dreadfully ill-qualified candidate ever to be nominated as
U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has nonetheless been an odds-on
favorite to be confirmed because the committee enjoys a Republican majority
and because George W. Bush's White House has a knack for iron party
discipline.
But that majority is only 10-8, and it's been the Democrats' hope to turn
just one of those Republicans. That would turn the vote to a 9-9 tie, which
would prevent the nomination from going to the floor (where, given the
Republicans' vaster majority, he would win easily).
The Democrats and assorted lobbyists have been working on two of the panel's
fairly moderate Republicans, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Chuck Hagel
of Nebraska. But in recent days, both have said they were leaning toward
voting in Bolton's favor. It seemed all over.
A vote was scheduled for this afternoon. The panel's Democrats advanced some
delaying maneuvers. The Republican chairman, Richard Lugar of Indiana,
swiftly put them down. The vote looked imminent.
Then, at about 4:30 p.m., out of nowhere, George Voinovich, a Republican
from Ohio, said that he hasn't attended any of the hearings on Bolton (he
claimed to be busy with something or other) but, based on charges that he
had just heard today, he would not "feel comfortable" voting Bolton out of
committee.
The audio on C-SPAN 2 isn't so great, but the room seemed to go quiet for a
few seconds, then to erupt with buzz. Chafee nervously asked if Lugar still
intended to stage a vote, given what Voinovich had just said. Sure, Lugar
replied, let's vote. The Republican half of the room started shaking its
collective head. Hagel had intoned, a few minutes earlier, that he'd vote
for Bolton in committee but might not on the floor (as if that matters,
given the Republicans' healthy margin there). Now he shifted. At the start
of the session, Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., had suggested postponing the
vote in order to investigate a recent spate of allegations about Bolton.
That was when Dodd's side looked like it was about to lose; Lugar shut the
motion down. But now Hagel and a few other Republicans said, ahem, maybe we
need to take some time and look into these matters after all.
Lugar and Joseph Biden of Delaware, the committee's ranking Democrat,
reached an accord. The Democratic and Republican staff members, working
together, will investigate the new charges, calling more witnesses for
interviews. The senators will go on recess. When they come back, they'll
look at the probe's results. Maybe they'll call Bolton back for another
hearing, perhaps to defend himself. Then they'll vote. In short, the vote is
delayed by at least a couple of weeks. Meeting adjourned.
The White House now faces a question: Is it time to pull the rug out from
under this nuisance named John Bolton? Bush is usually, by nature, opposed
to giving in under this sort of pressure. Here, though, he may have no
choice.
The new allegations* are terrible in two senses. First, they make Bolton
look like a thin-skinned creep who tolerates no disagreement from anyone
around him. This is not an ideal quality for a diplomat, but by itself it
probably wouldn't be enough to put off Bush. Everyone who knows Bolton has
known this about him from the beginning.
The second factor is the key. An extended investigation can only make things
worse. Every time there's been a delay, more and more bad stuff has come out
about this guy; more and more officials, present and former, have mustered
the courage to come forth and tell more. Beyond that, Bolton faces possible
charges of perjury. In his day of hearings earlier this month, he made
statements to the committee - under oath - that, given what has been learned
since, can only be called lies. If he goes back to the committee two weeks
from now, he will be asked about those statements; they will be contrasted
with statements, also made under oath, by a half-dozen other people. How do
you reconcile these contradictions, Mr. Secretary? The thing is, he can't.
There's a third factor. Almost nobody around President Bush likes Bolton.
That "almost" is a big qualifier. The guy who does like Bolton is Vice
President Dick Cheney. Cheney put him up for this job, and what Cheney wants
usually goes. But Cheney wanted Bolton to have a bigger job, deputy
secretary of state. And the person who blocked that promotion was
Condoleezza Rice, who was about to be confirmed as secretary of state and
didn't want her No. 2 to be someone who'd report behind her back to Cheney.
Rice has publicly supported Bolton, but with some body language that can be
read as a caveat. Usually, nominees for U.N. ambassador are introduced to
the press by the president. Bolton was introduced by Rice. It was as if she
were saying, "This guy will be under my thumb." Some insiders said to
themselves that day, "Good luck." One of the charges that has since come out
is that, during Bush's first term, when Bolton was undersecretary of state
for arms control (a position he still holds), he held on to documents about
Iran that were meant to be passed up to Colin Powell and Richard Armitage,
then the secretary and deputy secretary of state. It has been reported that,
as a result, Rice now keeps Bolton out of the loop. It's a reasonable
inference that she - and many other officials at Foggy Bottom - would be
relieved if Bolton's nomination were somehow withdrawn.
So, President Bush must choose between his two most trusted advisers, Cheney
and Rice. Cheney is a fairly cold-blooded politico. Maybe even he will
realize that the cause is no longer worth saving. Bolton has caused a mess,
and it can only get messier. The Democrats might beat him in the Senate, and
once they win one contest they will only get more aggressive on other, more
important contests to come. "It's not personal, John, it's business," Cheney
might say, as he stretches the cord and wraps it around Bolton's neck
(metaphorically, of course).
It's a good guess that one of two things is going to happen in the coming
days and weeks: Either Bolton goes down - or we start learning a lot of
unpleasant things about Sen. George Voinovich.
###
*The allegations were made by at least seven officials who have been
interviewed by the committee staff (and leaked or otherwise provided to the
press) as well as, in a public hearing, by Carl Ford, a conservative
Republican and career intelligence official who, until recently, was
assistant secretary of state for intelligence and research. They boil down
to these: On at least five occasions, Bolton intimidated and tried to get
fired intelligence analysts at the State Department and the CIA who
disagreed with his views. A former official with the U.S. Agency for
International Development wrote a letter to the committee stating that
during one run-in with Bolton, while she was working on projects in
Kyrgyzstan, he harassed her in a Moscow hotel lobby, banged on her door,
then went to Kyrgyzstan and spread lies about her - saying she was being
investigated for absconding with government funds - that nearly derailed her
work. Several officials have claimed, though anonymously for now, that
Bolton blocked official documents about Iran from moving up the chain of
command to Colin Powell.
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